Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
