A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
